Creating wealth management solutions based upon individual needs, goals and risk tolerance.

Barstool Economics and the Income Tax Debate

We are often asked about “What’s going to happen tax wise and what does it mean?”   The issue of higher taxes for the wealthy is currently dominating the media and election debates. The following is an interesting look at this issue attributed to David R. Kamerschen, PhD, Professor of Economics, University of Georgia.   The following barstool economics analogy is as relevant today as it was in 2008 when it first appeared in the popular media and classrooms.

Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100.  If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:

The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing. The fifth would pay $1. The sixth would pay $3. The seventh would pay $7. The eighth would pay $12. The ninth would pay $18. The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.

So, that’s what they decided to do. The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve.  “Since you are all such good customers,” he said, “I’m going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20” so drinks for the ten now cost just $80.  The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. . They would still drink for free. . . But what about the other six men, the paying customers, how could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his ‘fair share?’. . . They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. . .  But if they subtracted that from everybody’s share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man’s bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.  And so:

The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings). The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33%savings). The seventh now pay $5 instead of $7 (28%savings). The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings).  The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings). The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).

Each of the six was better off than before. . . And the first four continued to drink for free. . . But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.  “I only got a dollar out of the $20,”declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man,” but he got $10!” “Yeah, that’s right,” exclaimed the fifth man.  “I only saved a dollar, too.  It’s unfair that he got ten times more than I!” “That’s true!!” shouted the seventh man. “Why should he get $10 back when I got only two?  The wealthy get all the breaks!” “Wait a minute,” yelled the first four men in unison.  “We didn’t get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!”  The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up. The next night the tenth man didn’t show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important.  They didn’t have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!  And that, ladies and gentlemen, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works.  The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction.  Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore.  In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.  Taxes are a question of behavior economics – once one understands that they can gain a clearer picture of any current or pending legislation and what it means for the economy. There must be tax revenues for our government to operate. The question is what the source of taxes and levels of participation should be. This will be an interesting and ongoing debate. We hope that this helps give a better understanding of the issue and as always are happy to discuss this with you.

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Randy Carver and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of David R. Kamerschen or the University of Georgia. You should discuss any tax matters with the appropriate professional.

Carver Financial Services Inc. – Fast Track 50 Winner

November 5, 2015 Carver Financial was once again recognized as one of the The Lake-Geauga Fast Track 50 winners for 2015. The Fast Track 50 recognizes the contribution of local companies to Lake and Geauga county economies. The Fast Track 50 Committee compiles a list of the fastest-growing companies in Ohio’s Lake and Geauga counties. Companies are ranked by sales and employment growth over the previous five-year period and the top 50 are recognized. Carver Financial Services Inc. has consistently been recognized on this list for the last eight years.

Carver Financial Services named to Crains 52 list of Fastest Growing Companies

November 4, 2015 Carver Financial Services Inc. named to the Crain’s 52 list of Fastest Growing Companies in North East Ohio. Crain’s Cleveland Business Fast 52 recognizes Northeast Ohio’s fastest-growing companies. Numbers audited by accounting partner Apple Growth Partners were used to identify businesses achieving the most substantial margins of revenue growth between 2010 and 2014. Companies were required to be at least 5 years old and have accrued a minimum of $5 million in revenue at the end of 2014.

Don’t Miss The Revolution

A revolution is underway as we see incredible advances in technology. This is leading to new innovations in everything from medicine to communications, from how we eat to how we relax. The possibilities are almost unimaginable as things that were science fiction just a few years ago become reality today. The pace of change is growing exponentially and there are many opportunities for those who can see beyond the challenges and problems of today. At the same time there is a risk that many will miss this incredible opportunity.

With change and advancement comes increased complexity.   Clearly the world, and our country, is faced with some big challenges; but we also have some huge opportunities. For years various people have talked about the coming collapse of the US economy and this continues today. Sometimes this is simply to sell their newsletter or product; a modern version of the snake oil salesmen 150 years ago. Sometimes it is simply to draw in readers or viewers to sell advertising. Generally partial or totally inaccurate “facts” are cited to support the claims that play upon peoples fear.

The reality is that the United States remains a global superpower of astounding strength. Advancements in technology, and discoveries of natural resources, are allowing us to be a global leader in manufacturing, net exporter of energy and safe-haven for foreign investors. Incredible amounts of wealth are being created for those who have the confidence, strength and vision to take advantage while those blinded by negativity may see their standard of living eroded. Consider that household net worth in the United States has increased by an amazing @ 30% just since 2007 to more than $85.7 trillion dollars (Calafia Beach Pundit 9/18/15).

The volume of information has continued to increase while the time to act upon it has dramatically shortened. Our Personal Vision Planning® process focuses on you and your needs, not specific investments or day to day trends. We partner with you to sort out what is relevant for you and what is not.   The planning is not based upon predicting what markets or interests will do but rather on helping you maintain and enhance your standard of living while simplifying your life. We work with all clients developing a customized plan customized to your situation, monitoring the progress and then helping make adjustments over time.

We view your planning as a process that takes place over your lifetime rather than a specific event. For this reason, regular review appointments are very important to ensure that your portfolio continues to be properly allocated as your financial situation changes. We encourage you to visit our website—www.carverfinancialservices.com—to view a schedule of our upcoming educational seminars and to learn more about us. As always please contact us if you would like to meet or if we can otherwise be of service. We believe that there are amazing times ahead and we look forward to sharing the journey with you.  Please contact us at randy.carver@raymondjames.com or (440) 974-0808 whenever we may be of service!

 

 

 

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Randy Carver as of 10/2/15 and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Every investor’s situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

Interest Rates & The FED

There has been much discussion about when the FED will increase interest rates and by how much. While no increase has taken place the markets have none-the-less reacted to comments from the FED and various pundits. What the Federal Reserve (FED) says, or signals, is often as significant as what they actually do from a policy standpoint. The FED utilizes these actions to try and control monetary policy and the overall economy.

Before the September 18th FED meeting many were expecting one of two scenarios:

  1. An increase in interest rates with a statement of how good things are
  2. No move in interest rates with a more aggressive statement

We didn’t get either. There was no increase in the FED Funds rate nor was there an aggressive statement. Previously the reasons given for the interest rate policy have been the fragile U.S. economy, market turbulence, concerns about inflation, the global economy in general and China’s status specifically. The lack of action at the September 18th meeting was attributed to the “recent global economic and financial developments.”

We realize that the U.S. economic recovery is not perfect, but we don’t think that it still requires interest rates to be at zero. Potentially this could lead to a larger interest rate hike in the near future. Many had expected a 0.25% increase at this meeting with a total increase of 1% over the next twelve to eighteen months.

As mentioned above the Fed cited “global economic and financial conditions” (translation: China is a mess) for its reason not to increase rates at the September 18th meeting. We have seen a steady expansion in the U.S. economy and big improvements in the U.S. labor market with some signs that inflation may be picking up. Moreover, thirteen of the 17 members of the FOMC have signaled their desire for a rate hike in 2015 (source federalreserve.gov)

We expect that the FED funds rate will be increased in the near term and that this could lead to some short term market volatility without much drama for the capital markets. The U.S. labor market is tightening and wages are likely to soon begin increasing. If the markets begin to fear that emerging inflationary pressures can be tamed only by an aggressive series of rate hikes, stock prices may suffer more than if there are moderate increases.

Regardless of what actually transpires we feel that the uncertainty will continue to contribute to short term market volatility. The one thing markets like less than bad news is uncertainty. Clarity of policy, even if rates are moving up, should help the broader markets. We continue to believe that the FED will be raising interest rates over the next year and that equity markets will continue to grow over the next three to five years. As always it’s important to have cash on hand for near term needs but perhaps equally so be positioned to take advantage of the longer term growth of markets as inflation picks up. In our opinion the best way to do this is to remain broadly diversified with holdings in sectors that may currently be out of favor such as hard assets and international. Your allocation should ultimately be based on your goals and needs, not short term market or economic movements.

We do not believe that anyone can predict what will transpire with the markets or economy in the very short term nor that itis important to do so. There will always be those who have an agenda to sell something (newsletters, etc.) that claim they have a new way to predict what is going to happen in order to justify the cost of their product.

We will continue to help you allocate your portfolio in a manner that does not require clairvoyance but prepares you for all contingencies. As always please give your advisor a call with any questions, concerns or if we can otherwise be of service. We are here for you.  You may contact us at (440) 974-0808 or randy.carver@raymondjames.com

 

 

 

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Randy Carver and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.

Asking the right questions about the Market and a Correction

It is not a matter of if general equity markets will correct but when and by how much. The real question we need to ask ourselves is how it will impact me and my investments and are we prepared.  If we are properly allocated for our needs, and our risk tolerance, than market volatility – either up or down – should not affect us financially. Properly planning, however, is not just about allocation and analysis but also being psychologically prepared for the inevitable portfolio fluctuations.

We are inundated with information on the radio, TV, internet, newspapers and other media. All of these sources are competing for our attention and will generally focus on the dramatic, short term and negative. Much of the information may be misleading, incomplete or totally false. Ultimately the goal for much of the media is to sell advertising, not to provide us with unbiased information.

We are planning and investing for the rest of our lives, and in many cases beyond our lifetime, as we plan for our children. Your financial planning must be based on your needs and objectives not short term market or economic changes. A proper financial plan takes into consideration the normal market gyrations and even unforeseen issues that arise both personally and also more generally. Your financial advisor plays a key role in helping you define what your vision is and then developing a plan to meet it. But this is just the start – your plan is a dynamic document and must continually be monitored and updated as your needs and goals change.

We work with you to help figure out what is important and then develop, monitor and update a plan to achieve your goals. Your planning is based on you and your vision – not short term market conditions.

This month we have heard about the issues with China, a flood of refugees from Syria in Europe, potential interest rate increases by the FED and terrorism abroad and at home just to name a few of the news items. As we get closer to the 2016 election we believe politicians will focus on all that is wrong, or potentially wrong, to help promote themselves and their solutions. The media will shout the refrain – ‘This time it’s different’. The reality is that there have always been challenges for individuals and our society and as we become more global both in terms of information and as a society we will hear about new issues. Ultimately, those who succeed will rise above the noise and focus on what’s important to them. There are things we can control, and things we cannot. By utilizing a disciplined approach to planning, monitoring and updating our portfolios we can rise above the noise. As always please contact us with questions or whenever we may be of service to you, your family or your friends.

 

 

 

Any opinions are those of Randy Carver and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. Every investor’s situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

Market Correction

We are now experiencing the market correction that has been anticipated and that we have spoken about for the last few years. This dip is neither surprising nor something that is not part of normal market movements. The surprising thing is that it has been almost four years since we experienced such a drop.

Below we discuss a little bit about where we are at. We will also discuss what to do now and what we expect in the longer run.   As always we are aware of what is happening and are here for you. Most importantly our investment approach is a proactive – rather than reactive one and therefore your portfolio has been allocated in anticipation of these types of short term events.   This dip may provide an opportunity to ad to equity positions at attractive prices and also may lead to some very beneficial government policy for the long term. We look at that keeping in mind that there may be an opportunity that many will miss due to media driven fear.

We understand that some people have a fixed income and or portfolio and cannot add to their positions at this time. Market dips present a good opportunity to at least rebalance if not to add to equity positions at attractive prices. The other beneficial outcome is that this may drive government policy that will benefit us in the longer (2 – 5 year) run.   As surely as we have these types of corrections the media, and other fear mongers, will shout that ‘this time it’s different’.  We believe it’s not.  The media will focus on the short term and the negative – we are investing for the rest of our lives and must not fall prey to fear that causes us to hurt our planning.

There are two primary reasons being cited for the market drop. The primary one is China has devalued their currency again in the face of questions about their development model struggling to maintain growth. The second is concerns about the FED raising interest rates in the United States. Today (Monday August 24th) China stocks fell 9% and all Asian markets suffered major losses. Europe’s major indexes opened about 3% down before trimming those losses slightly. The US markets dipped sharply at the opening as well.

What to do now?

First and foremost it is critical not to panic. We cannot say how long the correction will last but we do feel that the sharper the dip the faster the recovery. It is impossible to try and time markets. Getting out and ‘waiting for things to get better’ simply doesn’t work. Aside from the fact that you may miss some or all of the upswing there may be negative tax implications and other expenses involved. You are investing for the rest of your life not just the rest of the year.   Your advisor is here if you have concerns, however, if we feel changes should be made we will proactively contact you.

What happens next? Nobody can say how long or how steep a correction will be and the past does not guarantee the future. We believe that the steeper the dip the quicker the recovery and we also believe that will be the case now. It is interesting to note that there is now more talk that government regulation may be hurting the markets. As we are clearly in an election season we may see regulations and other government red tape reduced that could ultimately fuel accelerated growth for individual companies and markets over the next three to five years.

 

A few other points to remember:

Market corrections are a normal occurrence, it’s been four years since we’ve a 10% downturn (remember Greece in the summer of 2011 which produced a 20% correction in the market) so we’ve gone an unusual amount of time without one.

Market corrections typically happen once a year on average.

Our proactive approach has your portfolio positioned to cover your short-term needs and long-term objectives, so no structural changes are needed to your portfolio unless your needs and objectives have changed

Corrections in the markets may give us the opportunity to rebalance your portfolio and harvest losses to help offset future tax liabilities from interest, dividends and capital gains generated in your portfolio

The average investors returns over the last 20 years (Dalbar Study) is miserable because they tend to sell diversified quality investments when the markets go down, then only to recommit their capital when the price of the investment has risen above the price they sold at – in turn selling low and buying high.  This is why we don’t make significant changes to the portfolio during heightened levels of stress in the markets, our approach is focused on your long-term objectives such as not outliving your savings.

Most of the media’s job is to sell advertising, not spread accurate and unbiased information.  This is why we don’t watch the investment shows, although we read a considerable amount of research from veterans throughout the financial industry which helps refocus on attention to the big picture.

Finally, as a firm we do not believe in market timing and will not support such a strategy.

This will be a frightening time and we are here for you, but we believe this is not any different than any other correction over the last 100 years.   Take advantage of the opportunity and ignore the media.

 

 

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Randy Carver and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Holding investments for the long term does not insure a profitable outcome. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. You should discuss tax matters with the appropriate professional. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability.

Randy Carver named one of Top 100 Independent Advisors in US by Barron’s Magazine

August 24, 2015,  Barron’s Magazine named Randy Carver as one of  the top 100 independent financial advisors in the United States.  Randy has been recognized by Barron’s for various awards each year since 2008.   The selection is based upon a number of factors including  “assets under management, the quality of the practice  revenue produced for the firm, regulatory record, and philanthropic work”. Investment performance isn’t an explicit component because not all advisors have audited results and because performance figures often are influenced more by clients’ risk tolerance than by an advisor’s investment-picking abilities.  While Barron’s has recognized Randy this really reflects on the quality of the team at Carver Financial Services Inc. without all of whom this would not be possible.

 

Why Are We Investing?

For most of us investing is a means to an ends – not just a hobby or the ultimate goal. We are investing
to achieve our goals, meet our needs and fulfill our wishes. As such the ultimate benchmark that we
should be using when judging our performance is our ability to maintain and enhance our lifestyle; not
some market indicator.

Too often we see people evaluating their performance versus a benchmark that has little or nothing to
do with their personal goals. At best this is a waste of time, but at worst may result in behavior that is
detrimental our ultimate purpose. If we are investing just to beat an index that is one thing – if we are
investing to maintain and enhance our lifestyle that is completely different.
The other issue is the market news and behavior is often viewed over very short periods of time;
whereas most of us are investing for the rest of our lives. Again this is not consistent with why or how
most of us invest.

Investment decisions should be based on our personal needs, objectives and risk tolerance
understanding that we cannot predict (nor do we have to) the short term moves in equity markets,
interest rates or the economy. We should have cash or cash equivalents for any near term needs and
then invest in a diversified manner for the long term. If we can maintain and/or enhance our lifestyle
then we are being successful regardless of what the markets, or even our portfolio, do in the near term.
Your financial advisor is not being paid to beat the market but to help you achieve your vision. Please
contact us with questions or whenever we may otherwise be of service. We have a wide range of tools
for assisting you with this process but the most important one is simply listening so that we help you
define and achieve your vision.

 

Any opinions are those of Randy Carver and not necessarily those of Raymond James.
Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. Every investor’s
situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and
time horizon before making any investment. Prior to making an investment decision,
please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

Protecting Your Identity

Identity theft is the fastest growing crime in the U.S., with more than 13 million victims each year (source Consumer Reports) . Just being careful isn’t enough to protect your identity.

Our office, and Raymond James Financial Services Inc. take a number of proactive steps to protect your personal information ranging from encrypted emails to shredding hard copy documents. While Raymond James and Carver Financial Services employ the most up-to-date safeguards to protect client account numbers and other important profile information, you can help play a vital role in keeping your information secure.

There is much you can do to protect yourself including:

  • Protect passwords, PINs and answers to any security questions by not sharing them with anyone you don’t want to have access to your accounts. Avoid easily guessed passwords (family members’ names, birthdates, Social Security numbers).

 

  • Keep firewalls and security software up to date, and use encryption software on your laptops.

 

  • Use your personal computer for financial transactions, avoiding public-use computers if at all possible.

 

  • Do not give out vital information over the phone, by email or through in-person requests. Type in the URL of the site you want rather than clicking a link provided in an email.

 

  • Check your financial accounts regularly to ensure no unauthorized activity is taking place. Contact your credit card company or financial account institution immediately if you notice anything suspicious.

 

  • Only click on links or open attachments that you expect and are from sources you know and trust. Even if an email is from someone you know, if it looks suspicious, play it safe and confirm with the sender before opening.

A pleasant telephone voice requesting vital personal information or emails pretending to come from financial institutions you recognize asking for your passwords and PINs are still common, and unnerving, occurrences.  Once thieves have enough information, they can do real damage.

If you are serious about protecting yourself from identity theft you will want to consider signing up for an identity theft protection service. There are a number of services available today that provide daily monitoring of the information that is most often compromised by identity thieves. Some also include software to protect your computer and even include access to your credit scores.

For a list of top rated identity theft protection services check out:

http://www.nextadvisor.com/identity_theft_protection_services/compare.php

Both our office and Raymond James devote considerable resources to keeping your information secure. Using technological and human resources, we:

  • Secure access to our building and restrict access to critical areas using security personnel and constant video surveillance, among other measures.

 

  • Employ and constantly upgrade information safeguard software, including firewalls, anti-virus programs and intrusion-detection tools. We monitor our data systems 24/7, looking for signs of any unauthorized activity.

 

  • Use business continuity planning to ensure all data remains secure in the event of a natural disaster or other emergency.

 

Please feel free to contact us with any questions or whenever we can otherwise be of service.  We are here for you!